Knowledge of the future

Page 327 in the second report of the IPCC, on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, shows an interesting map of the world. The map shows the low-lying areas that are vulnerable for the possible consequences of climate change. A lot of densely populated deltas in Asia and Africa, the Mississippi (New Orleans) and just one delta in Europe: the delta of the Rhine. This is the Netherlands, especially the city of Rotterdam and the surrounding area. As far as the possible impact of climate change on flood risk is concerned, the IPCC considers Rotterdam the most vulnerable city of Europe.

For good reason, the possible consequences of climate change for the Netherlands are high on the agenda. The Dutch cannot afford to trifle with this risk. Fortunately, the level of flood protection in the Netherlands is high and this level can be maintained in the future as well. Recently, a Delta Committee presented a vision for the future. In the coming years this vision will be implemented, directed by a so-called Delta Commissioner that was specially appointed for this task by the Dutch government.

Over the last years I have published and given advices on flood protection at many occasions. I have looked at the past and written a book on the Dutch water history called Land in Sea. I have evaluated the present flood risk policy for the Dutch government. Now I aim at the future. I am fascinated by that IPCC map showing just one spot in Europe, at Rotterdam. How will climate change affect other countries in Europe? What do there vulnerabilities look like, for instance with respect to agriculture, desertification or landslides in the mountains? The Dutch brought the Delta Commissioner to bear. What are the answers elsewhere in Europe?

At this moment I do a lot of research on the vulnerabilities in Europe and the way these vulnerabilities may be affected by the possible impact of climate change. I aim to write a book, a journey through Europe in a changing climate. A fascinating subject that affects all of us. I have a European point of view. In my view, flood protection of Rotterdam, Europe’s largest harbour, is a European interest. The same holds for securing agriculture and other economic interests elsewhere in Europe. That’s how I look at our future.